Yuantong Express (600233) 2018 Annual Report Review: Express Delivery Maintains Steady Growth, Freight Forwarding Business Highlights
Event: Yuantong Express released the 2018 annual report, and the company realized revenue of 274 in the reporting period.
6.5 billion, an annual increase of 37.
45%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 19.
4.0 billion, an increase of 31 in ten years.
Opinion: The network layout is further encrypted. By the end of 2018, the company’s courier service network covered 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country, and cities at the prefecture level and above have basically achieved full coverage, and the coverage rate at cities above the county level reached 97.
19%; the company has 3,604 franchisees, 29,991 terminal outlets, and over 40,000 terminal stores; the company has 67 self-operated hub transfer centers and 5 self-operated city distribution centers; the total network of mainline transport vehicles exceeds 5,100Among them, there are 1,199 main-line 青岛夜网 transportation vehicles; the number of self-owned aviation fleets reached 12 express delivery rates increased by more than 30%, which is higher than the industry’s business completion in 2018 of 66.
6.4 billion pieces, an increase of 31 in ten years.
61%, exceeding the national express delivery volume growth rate of 5 shares, accounting for 13 national express delivery service business volume.
14%, an increase of 0 in the years before 2017.
Five single, market share has steadily increased.
Express achieved revenue of 204.
28 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.
95%, which is lower than the express delivery volume growth, which shows that the downward trend of single ticket prices still exists.
The unit price has fallen slightly, and the trend of price for quantity is still from the perspective of a single ticket. In 2018, the company’s single ticket income was 3.
44 yuan / piece, down 0 before.
24 yuan / piece, a decrease of 6.
36%, reflecting the fierce competition in the express delivery industry; the single ticket cost is 3.
03 yuan / piece, down by 0 every year.
25 yuan / piece, a decrease of 8.
04%, of which the decrease in broadband is the network transfer costs (from 0.
51 yuan / piece dropped to 0.
40 yuan / piece, a decrease of 22.
04%), reflecting good scale effects and cost control capabilities.
The current unit price trend of express delivery is more in line with our judgment in the in-depth report “Mastering the Future, Looking at Express Delivery from the Digital and Strategic Perspectives”, and combined with Yuantong’s annual report data, we believe that the leading express delivery companies in the future will still pass incremental and cost controlThis method reduces costs, and returns to downstream franchisees and customers by reducing single ticket revenue.
During the reporting period, the rapid development of freight forwarding business consolidated Yuantong International, and freight forwarding business became a new revenue growth point.
Freight forwarding business realized income 30.
$ 5.1 billion, an annual increase of 435%, of which air freight revenues23.
6.8 billion, accounting for 77.
61%, a year-on-year growth of 480%; freight forwarding business has 13.
62% gross profit margin, higher than express (12.
46%), with strong profitability.
Yuantong International undertakes the network resources of Syntec Logistics, and integrates development and integration. It currently has corporate entities in 17 countries and regions around the world, 54 self-built sites worldwide, and business coverage in more than 150 countries and more than 2,000 internationalIt is expected that the route will continue to grow at a relatively high rate in the future, and provide network assistance for Yuantong Express business to enter the international market.
Earnings forecasts, estimates and ratings We maintain our profit forecasts for 2019 and 2020, and increase our profit forecasts for 2021. We forecast net profit for 2019-2021 to be 24.
20,000 yuan, 30.
4.1 billion, 37.
15 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.
85 yuan, 1.08 yuan, 1.
31 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 16 times, 13 times, 10 times; maintain target price of 20.
40 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: 1. Segmentation of the growth rate of online shopping, leading to the breakdown of the growth rate of the express delivery industry.
2. Out-of-stock positions at franchised outlets will result in a reduction in the number of regional courier orders and customer loss.
3. The industry competition exceeds expectations, which will lead to an increase in single ticket revenue and affect the company’s profit level.